Response of Runoff to Extreme Land Use Change in the Permafrost Region of Northeastern China

To study the response of runoff to extreme changes in land use, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used construct historical, extreme, future scenarios for several major landscape types a permafrost region northeastern China. The results show that SWAT is applicable Tahe River Basin; forestlands, shrublands, wetlands, grasslands are main land-use this basin, transfers among them from 1980–2015 have impacted by less than 5%. Under use-change scenarios, simulated decreased grasslands, finally, forestlands. conversion produces different hydrological effects. When forestland converted grassland, increases 25.32%, when wetland, 13.34%, shrubland reduces 13.25%. In addition, sensitivity much greater during flood seasons dry seasons. Compared reference year 2015, annual under two (shrublands forestlands shrublands wetland) less. Also, both showed effects decrease flooding increased dryness, This provided important insight into integrated management use water resources Basin